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Air cargo registered its first year-on-year decline in February since March 2023 as a result of “extraordinary” growth a year ago.
The latest supply and demand statistics from IATA show that air cargo demand decreased by 0.1% in cargo tonne km (CTK) terms in February.
However, it wasn’t all bad news for the industry as the cargo load factor actually improved by 0.1 percentage points compared with a year ago to 45% due to a 0.4% decline in capacity supply.
IATA said that the demand decline was the result of a spike in air cargo volumes in February last year caused by a number of factors.
“February saw a small contraction in air cargo demand, the first year-on-year decline since mid-2023,” said IATA director general Willie Walsh.
"Much of this is explained by February 2024 being extraordinary — a leap year that was also boosted by Chinese New Year traffic, sea lane closures and a boom in e-commerce.
“Rising trade tensions are, of course, a concern for air cargo. With equity markets already showing their discomfort, we urge governments to focus on dialogue over tariffs.”
IATA added that if February’s figures were adjusted for seasonality - for example, the extra day in February last year - demand would have actually increased by 3% for the month.
Looking at trade indicators, the industrial production index rose 3.2% year on year, the highest growth in two years, and world trade expanded by 5%.
Consumer inflation remained elevated in the US, Europe, and Japan, ”easing only slightly from the previous month”, IATA explained.
"In contrast, China recorded its first decline in consumer prices in 11 months, reinforcing signs of persistent deflationary pressure in the economy.”
Jet fuel prices averaged $ 94.6/barrel in February, a 2.1% drop from January.
On regional performance, Asia Pacific airlines registered a 5.1% year-on-year increase in demand in February and capacity increased by 2.7% year on year.
North American carriers saw a 0.4% year-on-year decrease in demand growth for air cargo in February, while capacity decreased by 3.5% year on year.
There was a 0.1% demand decrease for European carriers during the month and capacity decreased 0.2%.
Middle Eastern airlines noted an 11.9% year-on-year decrease in demand and capacity decreased by 4%.
For Latin American carriers, there was a 6% demand growth for air cargo in February while capacity was up 7.6% year on year.
Finally, African airlines noted a demand decrease of 5.7% and capacity decreased by 0.6%.
