Source: DHL Express
Global trade is expected to continue to grow in the coming years despite the growing barriers and the rising implementation of tariffs, according to a new report from DHL Express and the New York University Stern School of Business.
The DHL Trade Atlas 2025 report concludes that even if all tariffs proposed during President Trump’s election campaign are implemented, and countries retaliate, trade is expected to grow over the next five years, albeit more slowly than if tariffs were not introduced.
"Uncertainty looms over future trade policies following US president Donald Trump’s re-election last year," DHL Express said in a press release. "The DHL Trade Atlas 2025, however, highlights how global trade growth has proven surprisingly resilient in the face of recent disruptions. This pattern is likely to continue even as the US begins a campaign of tariff increases."
DHL pointed out that trade is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 3.1% from 2024 to 2029, which aligns with GDP growth and is "modestly faster" compared with the previous decade.
The report also found that despite US tariffs, most countries continue to pursue trade as a key economic opportunity, and US trade barriers could strengthen ties among other countries.
It added that many of Trump’s tariff threats may end up different than originally proposed or delayed to prevent a spike in domestic inflation.
The report also pointed out that the US share of world imports currently stands at 13%, and its share of exports is 9%, which means US policies will have "substantial effects" on individual countries but are not enough to unilaterally determine the future of global trade.
DHL express chief executive John Pearson said: "There is still significant potential for trade growth in advanced and emerging economies worldwide. It’s impressive to see how international trade continues to withstand every conceivable challenge, from the 2008 financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic to tariffs and geopolitical conflicts."
Drilling down into the report, India, Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines are forecast to rank in the top 30 for both growth rate and absolute amount.
"India also stands out as the country with the third largest absolute amount of forecast trade growth (6% of additional global trade), behind China (12%) and the US (10%)," the report found.
On a regional level, the fastest trade volume growth from 2024 to 2029 is forecast for South & Central Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries - with compound annual growth rates between 5% and 6%.
All other regions are forecast to grow at rates of 2% to 4%.
Steven Altman, senior research scholar at the New York University Stern School of Business, said: "While threats to the global trading system must be taken seriously, global trade has shown great resilience because of the large benefits that it delivers for economies and societies.
"While the US could pull back from trade - at a significant cost - other countries are not likely to follow the US down that path because smaller countries would suffer even more in a global retreat from trade."
The report also found that the US and China have reduced their shares of trade with each other, although this is "not enough to constitute a meaningful decoupling”.
This means any trade war between China and the US will be less impactful on overall trade than it would have been in the past.
Direct US-China trade has fallen from 3.5% of world trade in 2016 to 2.6% over the first nine months of 2024.
"However, the US still brings in as high a share of its imports from China as the rest of the world does," DHL and the Stern School of Business said in the press release.
"Also, there is evidence suggesting that US imports from China are underreported. Moreover, data that also considers Chinese inputs in goods the US imports from other countries suggests no meaningful drop in U.S. reliance on goods made in China."
