Source: Shutterstock
The airfreight industry sails into 2025 on a massive tailwind that produced 15 months of uninterrupted growth up to October, much of it in excess of 10%. This was far beyond expectations at the start of 2024.
Predicting continuing momentum from ongoing disruption of container shipping and booming e-commerce out of Asia, IATA is confident that growth is going to extend into the coming year.
It forecast 6% growth in demand and a 5.8 rise in tonnage, pushing revenues to $157bn.
If anything, Boeing is even more bullish on the e-commerce engine. The plane maker envisages express shipments to account for a quarter of all air cargo by 2043, producing 5.8% annual volume growth for the express carriers, far ahead of 3.6% growth for general cargo.
DSV management is using a different crystal ball. This one shows flat volume for 2025, stating that the mode shift from ocean transport has largely run its course as businesses have adapted to the disruption in the Red Sea, while e-commerce momentum will slow down as many markets are saturated and governments are preparing regulations that will erode the business case for sending low-value online merchandise by air.
Some analysts and forwarders have reported that Chinese e-commerce giants Temu, Shein and AliExpress are already shifting their fulfillment models to send popular products by ocean carrier to US warehouses for fulfillment and building up capacity in Mexico.
A slump in e-commerce volumes would hit the airfreight industry hard. It has been far and away the chief driver of airfreight demand, hoovering up freighter capacity at a speed that left regular users scrambling for lift.
Industrial demand, historically the primary engine of airfreight volumes, has been in the doldrums. Manufacturing purchasing managers indices for the major economies have largely been stuck in contraction for much of 2024, and new orders indicate that a recovery is not imminent. Even China’s exports have disappointed, despite front loading to avoid looming tariffs.
It is hard to tell how much of the incoming US administration’s threats are bluster, but the selection of the new government team suggests a strong bent on trade barriers.
A US East Coast strike in January, which is highly likely, might cause some modal shift to air, but the first round showed that cargo owners had brought in goods early to avoid disruptions.
