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The e-commerce and e-fulfilment markets are expected to grow this year despite greater focus on cross-border parcels at a governmental level.
A new report from Ti Insight predicts that the global e-commerce and e-fulfilment market will grow by 15.5% in 2025 as the adoption of online shopping by consumers continues to more than offset any volumes lost as a result of restrictions on parcel imports.
Ti said that the market has regained its sharp upward trajectory since a post-Covid contraction in 2022.
In 2024 the market was valued at €521.9bn ($569 bn), double the market value recorded just before the pandemic in 2019, and grew 13.6% compared with 2023 levels.
Paul Chapman, senior editor at Ti, said: “The continued growth in the e-commerce logistics and e-fulfilment sector highlights the ongoing expansion of e-commerce within global retail.
"We are now witnessing a significant differentiation between providers of e-commerce logistics and e-fulfilment players across continents, as they adapt to the delivery requirements of retailers and customers.”
The expected increase for this year reflects renewed consumer confidence, potentially driven by improved economic conditions, advancements in digital infrastructure, and the continued shift toward online shopping.
Ti's optimism also comes as governments - particularly in the US - increase their scrutiny on cross-border packages given the rapid increases of the last few years.
Earlier this year, the US attempted to remove the de minimis exemption, which allows packages worth less than $800 to be imported tariff free and with minimal customs scrutiny.
The country was forced to perform a u-turn after just a few days as customs was overwhelmed by the number of packages it was suddenly expected to process but the de minimis ban is expected to be re-instated once adequate systems are in place.
“Although [US] president Trump’s policies on trade and tariffs have introduced significant uncertainty into the market, the sector shows no signs of being blown off course. Consumer habits have transformed, and this will power domestic and cross-border e-commerce and e-fulfilment needs for years to come.”
Ti said that the Asia Pacific region has grown at a slightly faster rate than either North America or Europe; with 11% growth since 2020 compared with 10% for North America and 8% for Europe.
However, North America remains the largest market, just ahead of Asia Pacific, which continued to close the gap last year.
Meanwhile, merger and acquisition activity in the sector continues as "larger groups seeking to capitalise on the e-commerce growth by acquiring smaller specialists".
The report highlights recent e-commerce logistics acquisitions, examples of which are: DHL acquiring Inmar Supply Chain Solutions and Brandpath Group; Stord acquiring Pitney Bowes fulfilment activities; GLS acquiring e-Log and Bpost acquiring Staci.
