DSV is expecting air cargo volumes and capacity additions to be flat next year but the supply-demand balance could still come under pressure.
Writing in its regular market outlook, the Denmark-headquartered forwarder said that it is expecting the global air trade to normalise in 2025 following the e-commerce and Red Sea shipping crisis fuelled volume growth of this year.
Looking at e-commerce volume growth, the company said that many markets are now heavily penetrated, which will limit further growth opportunities.
Meanwhile, stricter customs and compliance standards, such as a potential clampdown on the US de minimis rules, will add complexity and cost.
And on modal shift as a result of the Red Sea crisis, DSV said that supply chains are now adapting to the longer sailing time that resulted from vessels having to divert around southern Africa and this will see volumes return from air to sea as supply chains are "gradually rebalancing as companies become better equipped to handle challenges".
Looking at capacity, DSV said that space has increased 7% year on year in 2024 which lags behind the double-digit volume growth reported this year.
Next year, the forwarder is expecting capacity to remain flat as production issues at Boeing have slowed delivery of the 777-200 freighter, next generation freighters aren't expected to enter the market until after 2026 and freighters are already operating at maximum flight hours leaving no room to add extra capacity with existing aircraft.
The forwarder added that cargo load factors are also already high meaning there is no room to optimise capacity further.
"With capacity expected to remain flat and possibly decline as older aircraft are retired due to age restrictions, any increase in demand will put additional stress on the market," the forwarder said.
"However, if demand falls, operators may park ageing aircraft to balance supply and demand."
https://www.aircargonews.net/data/air-cargo-avoids-crazy-peak-season-despite-continued-growth-in-november/
https://www.aircargonews.net/airlines/airfreight-demand-drivers-are-problematic/
