Airfreight rates remain far above the year-ago level in early January despite a seasonal dip in pricing following the peak Christmas period.
The latest statistics from analyst WorldACD show that overall airfreight spot rates in the week to January 12 were 22% ahead of last year’s levels at $2.76 per kg thanks to the strength of pricing out of Asia Pacific and the Middle East/South Asia (MESA) regions.
This comes despite spot prices declining by 3% compared with the previous week as a result of a seasonal slowdown in demand.
Drilling down into the figures, average spot rates from the Asia Pacific region fell by 5% between the two weeks to $3.81 per kg but remain at 27% higher than a year ago.
WorldACD said that demand between Asia Pacific and the US had remained “surprisingly firm” in the final two weeks of 2024. Volumes on the route weakened by 24% in the first week of the year but regained 14% in the second week.
"But spot rates have continued to slide, dipping to $5.39 per kilo in week two from Asia Pacific to the US, and sinking to $4.25 from China to the US – although those spot rates are still up on a year-on-year basis, by 37% and 10%, respectively," the analyst said.
From Asia Pacific to Europe, demand was strong throughout 2024 but "dropped sharply" in December. In the first week of January demand was down 40% year on year, picking up by 26% in the second week of the year.
"Asia Pacific to Europe spot rates have, correspondingly, dropped back from their levels of more than $5 per kilo in mid-December, dipping to around $4.30 in week 52 and week one, but they rebounded to $4.59 in week two – taking them 42% higher compared with their level this time last year," WorldACD said.
The analyst added that spot rates to Europe from South Korea, Hong Kong and Japan to Europe were all above $5 per kg in week two, while China to Europe rebounded to $4.48 per kg.
There was a similar trend for the MESA region where rates that were elevated over the first three quarters of 2024 due to Red Sea disruption fell in the final three months.
"Average spot rates from MESA to Europe of $2.60 per kg in week two are down by around 20% compared with their levels in early November (week 45), although they are still up 65% year on year."
The analyst added: "Nevertheless, air cargo rates and demand from MESA origins are likely to remain elevated for the time being. Shipping sources such as Lloyd’s List report that the current fragile ceasefire deal in Gaza has not altered the current threat assessment for shipping in the Red Sea, and shipping lines will not be prepared to disrupt global supply chains by re-routing until there is hard evidence the Houthi threat has diminished."
