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The air cargo market has faced a challenging start to the year with geopolitical words and action “driving disruption at a faster pace than we can ever recall”, according to US freight forwarder Expeditors.
But trying to interpret the impact of these disruptions - such as new US tariffs and the withdrawal and temporary reinstatement of the de minimis exemption for China packages - is also proving a challenge to analysts.
The latest figures from WorldACD are a case in point. Data released by the analyst today shows that the dip in cargo tonnages over the Lunar New Year (LNY) break was actually less pronounced than last year, perhaps surprising given the disruption faced by the industry.
WorldACD’s figures show that this year demand from China and Hong Kong during the LNY reached a low point decline of 45% compared to the level two weeks previously. This is an improvement on the 66% fall registered at the corresponding point in the LNY cycle in 2024.
“This year’s dip in air cargo tonnages during the Lunar New Year (LNY) period is relatively shallow compared with last year,” WorldACD said.
“The overall increasing trend of e-commerce demand since last year might have contributed to this dynamic, but the trends and underlying factors for air cargo tonnages from China and Hong Kong are rather complex this year and remain difficult to interpret, especially until we are well clear of the effects of LNY and recent US ‘de minimis’ rule changes, and reversals.”
The analyst added that volume trends from China and Hong Kong to the US and from China and Hong Kong to Europe were similar, suggesting that there hadn’t been a surge in demand to the US ahead of the introduction of tariffs or the impact of the de minimis turnaround.
“So, there is no real evidence, in data terms, of a significant level of ‘front-loading’ activity in anticipation of the expected tariffs in the US on China-origin air cargo – nor of the confusion caused by US ‘de minimis’ rules for China leading to unexpectedly low volumes of China/HKG origin cargo to the US,” WorldACD said. “But it is also possible that those factors may have cancelled each other out, to some extent.”
Last week, WorldACD reported the cancellation of dozens of e-commerce-loaded freighter flights in recent weeks.
Rates out of Asia also remain ahead of last year's levels, the data provider said. Average spot rates out of Asia Pacific are up 9% year on year. From Hong Kong to Europe rates were flat at $4.95 per kg in week seven compared with a week earlier while out of China there was a 10% increase to $4.34 per kg.
Spot rates from Asia Pacific to the US were up 4% in week seven to $4.81 per kg, although prices from China to the US were down 6% to $3.74 per kg.
Earlier this week, another data provider, Rotate, said that transpacific freighter flights had yet to recover to their pre-LNY levels - they are around 13% down - agreeing that it was difficult to interpret what was driving this development.
