Tonnages from China to the US dropped following Lunar New Year (LNY) and dozens of e-commerce freighter flights have been cancelled, although with a short time span involved it is difficult to establish how much the US government’s de minimis plans have impacted these developments.
WorldACD has reported that its latest data showed tonnages from China to the US dropped steeply in week 5 (27 January-2 February) and week 6 (3-9 February).
The data provider said: "With LNY falling on 29 January this year, it was no surprise that tonnages from China to the USA dropped steeply in the surrounding days and weeks, falling -20%, WoW (week on week), in week 5 and a further -28% in week 6, taking tonnages -41% down, YoY."
Hong Kong to US tonnages were also down 22% WoW in week 5 and 13% in week 6.
"It’s difficult to separate how much of that decline was simply linked to the annual holidays and factory closures in China in the weeks before and after LNY, and how much resulted from the Trump administration’s sudden decision to revoke access to Section 321 customs-free ‘de minimis’ import processes for imports from China," said WorldACD.
"The resulting huge customs processing backlogs led swiftly to that presidential order being suspended until “adequate systems are in place to fully and expediently process and collect tariff revenue applicable”, but in the meantime dozens of e-commerce-loaded freighter flights had been cancelled."
But there were similar WoW declines in tonnages from China to Europe of -30% in week 5 and a further -20% in week 6, with Hong Kong to Europe tonnages holding up little better (-22%, and a further -17%, WoW, respectively).
However, spot rates from China to Europe were relatively stable, dipping -2% in week 5 and a further -4% in week 6, to $3.91 per kilo – almost exactly their level in week 6 last year.
Spot rates from China to the US, meanwhile, dropped by -7%, WoW, in week 5, and a further -3% in week 6, to $3.99 a kilo, taking them -19% lower year on year, with Hong Kong to US rates 14% down year on year.
Air cargo tonnages to the US from other East Asian countries that celebrate LNY also declined sharply in week 5, WoW, including South Korea (-42%), Taiwan (-60%) and Vietnam (-58%), although volumes rebounded or partially rebounded in week 6, with a +21% WoW recovery in South Korea, +68% rebound in Taiwan, and a +31% partial bounce-back in Vietnam.
Plus spot rates from those markets to the US remain significantly above their levels this time last year, pointed out WorldACD.
