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Air cargo demand rose for a 16th consecutive month to 8.2% in November, although growth rates have been decelerating since September while the industry faces further pressure from inflation, geopolitical uncertainties and trade tensions.
Total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTK), rose by 8.2% compared to November 2023 levels, according to the latest data from the IATA. In fact, the latest CTK volumes were the highest of any November on record.
Meanwhile, capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTK), increased by 4.6% year on year.
“It was a good November for air cargo with 8.2% demand growth nearly doubling the 4.6% growth in cargo capacity,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general.
“Fuel costs tracked at 22% below previous-year levels and tight market conditions supported yield growth at 7.8%. All things considered we are looking to close out 2024 air cargo performance on a profitable note.”
However, he added: ”While this strong performance is very likely to extend into 2025, there are some downside risks that must be carefully watched. These include inflation, geopolitical uncertainties and trade tensions.”
Looking at performance in more detail, month-on-month (MoM), demand dropped by 0.5% after seasonal adjustments.
”Yearly growth rates have been decelerating since September to single digits, indicating a move back to pre-2021 values,” reflected IATA.
Air cargo volumes are predicted by IATA to rise by 5.8% year on year to reach 72.5m tonnes in 2025, supported by e-commerce and Red Sea-related demand.
But IATA director general Willie Walsh warned last month that the demand outlook for 2025 was less positive than performance in 2024.
One region where demand growth isn’t a concern is Asia Pacific. As e-commerce continues to thrive, Asia Pacific airlines saw 13.2% year on year growth, although capacity continued to return to the region, rising 9.4%.
Latin American carriers also thrived, with 11.6% growth. Capacity increased 6.4%.
North American carriers had a solid perfornance with a 6.9% demand growth, alongside a 2.2% capacity increase. At the same time, European carriers saw a 5.6% growth and a 4.3% capacity increase.
”International routes experienced exceptional traffic levels for the 16th consecutive month with a 9.5% year-on-year increase in November. Airlines are benefiting from rising e-commerce demand in the US and Europe amid ongoing capacity limits in ocean shipping,” noted IATA.
Middle Eastern carriers saw 3.6% growth, while, in contrast to other regions, capacity decreased by 0.6%.
Additionally, African airlines saw a 0.7% decrease in demand for air cargo in November, the slowest among regions. Capacity increased by 0.4% year on year.
In a not unsual state of affairs, economic performance was posiitve on many fronts, but there were areas of concern.
Year on year, industrial production rose 2.1% in October. Global goods trade grew for a seventh consecutive month, reporting a 1.6% increase.
The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for global manufacturing output was above the 50-mark for November, indicating growth. However, the PMI for new export orders remained below the 50-mark, suggesting ongoing uncertainty and weakness in global trade.
US headline inflation, based on the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose by 0.1 percentage points to 2.7% in November. In the same month, the inflation rate in the EU increased by 0.2 percentage points to 2.5%. China’s consumer inflation fell to 0.2% in November, continuing concerns of an economic slowdown.
