Boeing has slightly increased its prediction for the size of the total freighter fleet in 2043 due to both a lower retirement rate and an increase in new and converted aircraft.
In its latest commercial market outlook report, the airframer has predicted 2,845 new cargo aircraft will be needed by 2043 compared with last year's forecast of 2,825.
Retirements are also expected at a slower rate than in the previous forecast; 1,055 of today's current freighter fleet will still be in operation in 2043 according to Boeing's latest forecast compared with 920 last year.
As a result, the worldwide freighter fleet will reach 3,900 aircraft in 2043 compared with 2,340 today. Last year, the company predicted the global freighter fleet would stand at 3,745 by 2043.
This means the fleet will increase by 77% over the 20 year period, which is a 2.6% increase year on year.
Boeing said the increase will be driven by global trade growth and increases in e-commerce. Cargo tonne kms are expected to more than double compared with today's levels.
Demand for large widebody freighters will be the result of "strong" international e-commerce demand and supply chain restructuring.
Drilling down into the figures, Boeing expects new deliveries to make up 35% of the additional freighters with the remaining 65% to be converted aircraft.
Of the newbuilds, 660 (23%) will be large widebody and 345 (12%) medium widebody.
For conversions, 150 (5%) will be large widebody, 440 (15%) medium widebody and 1,250 (44%) standardbody.
Regionally, carriers in the Americas will lead the growth with the requirement for 1,115 freighters over the 20 year period, closely followed by Asia and then Eurasia, Middle East and Africa.
While Boeing has increased its forecast, Airbus last week trimmed its outlook.
The airframer’s latest global market forecast predicts demand for 2,470 freighters by 2043, a slight reduction from last year’s figure of 2,510.
This comes as the company has also reduced its outlook for cargo demand growth between 2024-2044, cutting it to 3.1% per year compared with 3.2% in its last projection.
But Airbus expects the world freighter fleet to increase from the current 2,220 to 3,360 over the period, partly through higher retention of current aircraft – some 890 against the previous estimate of 720.
https://www.aircargonews.net/airlines/freighter-operator/airbus-trims-freighter-outlook/
