Boeing is projecting a demand for 6,810 new airplanes in China over the next 20 years with a total value of just over $1trn, the US plane maker’s first trillion dollar aviation market.
Driven by China's growing e-commerce business – already the largest in the world – air cargo is expected to become a key driver for the continuous growth of aviation in China, with the need for 180 new freighters and 410 converted freighters, said Boeing.
China's leading provider of commercial airplanes made its forecast in its annual China Current Market Outlook (CMO) today in Beijing.
Randy Tinseth, vice president of marketing at Boeing Commercial Airplanes, said: "As China transitions to a more consumer-based economy, aviation will play a key role in its economic development.
"Because travel and transportation are key services, we expect to see passenger traffic grow 6.4% annually in China over the next 20 years."
Boeing forecasts that the widebody fleet will triple in size, requiring 1,560 new airplanes such as the 787, 777 and 777X.
This year's forecast reflects a continued shift from very large airplanes to efficient new small and medium widebody airplanes.
China's single-aisle fleet currently accounts for about 18% of global single-aisle aircraft; however, China's widebody fleet only represents approximately 5% of the global widebody segment.
"The continuing expansion of China's middle class, coupled with new visa policies and a wide range of widebody airplanes with new technologies, capabilities and efficiencies, gives us every reason to expect a very bright future for China's long-haul market," said Tinseth.
New Airplane China Deliveries Through 2035
Airplane type
Seats
Total deliveries
Dollar value
Regional jets
90 and below
140
$10B
Single-aisle
90-230
5,110
$535B
Small wide-body
200-300
870
$240B
Medium wide-body
300-400
630
$220B
Large wide-body
400 and above
60
$20B
Total
-----------
6,810
(17% of world total)
$1.025T
(17% of world total)
Source: Boeing Commercial Airplanes
