With the peak season at its peak, attention in the air cargo market is beginning to turn to the coming 12 months and many are predicting a busy start to the year for the industry despite recent developments.
There has been much discussion over recent weeks of the potential negative impact of higher tariffs placed on imports from China into the US and a clampdown by the world's largest economy on the de minimus rules that have allowed a recent flood of e-commerce parcels.
However, freight forwarders CEVA and Dimerco remain bullish for at least the first few months of the year.
CEVA Logistics global air and ocean leader Jérôme Petit explained that any changes to the de minimus rules would take months to be implemented.
"The e-commerce trend is set to continue growing, maintaining strong demand and higher rates," Petit explained.
"Any changes to this policy could impact air freight demand and rates. Even with potential changes, new policies take time to implement and affect the market. We might see effects in late third quarter of next year, meaning 2025 will likely still see strong airfreight markets.
"Despite potential changes in the US, e-commerce growth continues to rise in other regions with lower tax-free thresholds, suggesting continued strong demand for airfreight. In fact, Air China has already announced their rate increases."
Dimerco added that it expected any changes to tariffs to be implemented by the US in February or March, but there would be a spike in demand ahead of these changes.
"Businesses are expected to take proactive measures to avoid the financial impact of higher duties," the Taiwan-based forwarder said. "To mitigate potential cost increases, many companies are anticipated to ramp up inventory levels over the next two to three months.
"This stockpiling will likely drive a significant increase in both air and ocean freight activity as businesses rush to import goods before the new tariffs.
"The rush to secure products before the tariff hikes will put pressure on logistics networks, potentially leading to tighter space and higher shipping rates. This heightened demand for freight services may also result in longer lead times as companies push for faster deliveries to fill their warehouses."
In the medium term, Dimerco is predicting an acceleration of the trend to move production away from China as companies look to avoid tariffs on goods from China.
The forwarder expects countries in Southeast Asia, particularly Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia, to be amongst those that will benefit.
Dimerco said the strategy would allow businesses to obtain certificates of origin from these regions, as a portion of their production is completed there, reducing their exposure to tariffs on Chinese-made products.
In turn, the export of raw materials from China to these new locations is expected to rise in lockstep with the shift of production.
"Southeast Asian countries will still rely on major transit hubs like Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Japan, particularly for airfreight to the US," Dimerco predicted. "To adapt to these changes, carriers may adjust their pricing strategies next year in response to evolving market trends."
https://www.aircargonews.net/business/trump-presidency-could-curb-e-commerce-air-cargo/
https://www.aircargonews.net/business/supply-chains/trump-reveals-plans-for-tariffs-on-china-mexico-and-canada/
https://www.aircargonews.net/business/supply-chains/air-cargo-capacity-set-to-come-under-pressure-in-2025/
https://www.aircargonews.net/airlines/air-cargos-wait-and-see-approach-to-us-tariffs-and-positive-demand-outlook-for-2025/
