African air cargo carriers face ongoing political and economic challenges, but they equally have promising growth opportunities.
Industry professionals are often quick to point to the political and economic challenges that Africa faces, but there are also untapped growth opportunities for the most savvy in the region.
Data from IATA shows African airlines saw 8.5% year-on-year growth in 2024, while capacity increased by 13.6%.
Boeing’s World Air Cargo Forecast predicts that African air cargo volumes will double over the next 20 years, driven by factors including economic growth, policy reform, liberalisation of traffic rights and trade.
Currently, there are of course ongoing concerns about barriers to trade that it would be unwise not to factor into business plans.
During Air Cargo Africa, multi-stakeholder conference panellists highlighted issues including protectionism, lack of trade liberalisation, blocked airline funds and bureaucracy, to name a few.
Underdeveloped networks and limited capacity further complicate matters.
Meanwhile, the African Development Bank’s 2025 Macroeconomic Performance and Outlook (MEO) report pointed to prolonged conflicts in regions such as the Sahel and the Horn of Africa.
Such conflict means that flights take longer due to route diversions, adding time and cost to cargo operations.
Not to mention it complicates trade agreements and efforts to make operations easier and more efficient.
On the upside, the MEO report estimated Africa’s average real GDP growth to be 3.2% in 2024 and projects real GDP growth to accelerate to 4.1% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026.
Additionally, the ongoing rollout of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and the Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM) are anticipated to facilitate air cargo growth.
Perishables exports boom
Perishables, including fruit, vegetables, meat and flowers are a major success story for the continent and are helping airlines to grow their networks.
Kenya Airways Cargo (KQ Cargo) has an IATA CEIV-certified warehouse at its home hub at Nairobi Airport, which it is expanding to further support rising volumes of ambient, cool and frozen perishables.
Peter Musola, head of cargo commercial at the airline, majority owned by the Kenyan Government, says: “We are looking at developing dedicated special product handling lanes for products such as meat, fresh fruit and vegetables and flowers within this warehouse development project."
Kenya is the biggest vegetable exporter in Africa and the country has trade agreements with the UAE, UK and several European countries which allows Kenyan perishable exports to have a preferential status, points out Sanjeev Gadhia, the founder and chief executive of privately owned Nairobi-headquartered Astral Aviation.
Kenya is also the third largest flower exporter in the world, after Ecuador and Colombia, says Gadhia.
He says Astral has observed a strong flow in perishables exports from Africa into Europe and the Middle East, however, inbound volumes have decreased because Africa is still in the midst of a recession, says Gadhia.
“There’s a very big imbalance in air cargo volumes. This hurts Africa trade, because most trade is in the direction of Europe.”
He further reflects: “Africa needs to diversify its perishable exports and not rely on Europe. It needs to look at new markets in the Middle East and Asia.”
US concerns
Another concern is the impact of US politics on pharma trade, specifically the US’ withdrawal from the World Health Organization (WHO).
Astral carries large quantities of vaccines and medical items into Africa from Europe and Asia, but Gadhia says shipments will suffer without US funding.
“Once the US pulls out, I can actually see a very, very devastating effect on Africa, because we are one of the largest consumers of WHO-funded products.”
Additionally, the US has effectively suspended new development projects with United States Agency for International Development (USAID), which is concerning for Astral because it carries a lot of cargo which is funded by the agency.
He says there are also concerns that African trade will take a hit with the US’ potential non-renewal of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which provides sub-Saharan countries with duty-free access to the US market for thousands of products.
Again trade diversification is key. Gadhia says there should be more of a focus on Asia.
“I think that in the next two years, Africa will see an increase in trade airfreight volumes with China and India and a reduction in trade volumes with the US.”
That said, he notes that like the Europe-Africa trade lane, Astral’s African exports to Guangzhou and Hong Kong comprise of relatively small volumes of lower-value goods like tea and coffee.
Africa’s turn for e-commerce
Still, contrary to talk of e-commerce trade reaching saturation point in the airfreight market, this may only be the beginning for African carriers.
Africa accounts for 18% of the world’s population but last year just 0.5% of total global e-commerce revenues, so it is a ripe market, according to research from Boeing.
KQ Cargo is currently carrying out a lot of middle-mile e-commerce deliveries.
“We are moving traffic for Amazon, Alibaba and a number of e-commerce companies,” says Musola.
However, KQ Cargo is in the process of developing its own e-tailer solution – although the specifics of the project are still under leadership evaluation.
Musola says the project will enable KQ Cargo to broaden its e-commerce scope, with the goal of increasing revenue from the vertical.
“We are moving from just the logistics option into the retail, technology and fulfilment options,” he added.
Astral too is seeing inbound e-commerce growth, but only ex Hong Kong to Johannesburg, which Gadhia attributes to trust in online purchases, internet connectivity and payment procedures in South Africa.
“There is a potential 500 tons a week of e-commerce volume coming from China to South Africa. This is huge because we’re not used to seeing such volumes,” says Gadhia.
It will be some time before more nations jump on the e-commerce bandwagon though, he thinks.
“If you look at other parts of Africa, there’s still a traditional buyers market – they want to see before they buy, and it takes some time before that evolution will come into Africa,” reflects Gadhia.
That said, as well as Hong Kong-Johannesburg volumes, Astral also carries e-commerce from Hong Kong into the Middle East.
“That is very important for our cargo volumes in terms of aircraft utilisation,” says Gadhia.
To tap into the e-commerce market further, Astral is planning to target smaller airports in China that bigger carriers usually bypass.
“We’re looking for e-commerce opportunities in the secondary airports in China that are underserved, like Nanjing, Kunming, Changsha and Hefei, and would welcome smaller carriers.”
“We feel that we need to have a niche. And our niche is to fly to airports that nobody else wants to fly to.”
Offering a regional perspective, David Ambridge, director of cargo and mail at state-owned TAAG Angola Airlines, says there is major import demand for e-commerce in South Africa and Nigeria, while demand is growing in Ethiopia. He thinks demand will likely extend to Tanzania and Kenya in the future.
“There’s big e-commerce already in South Africa, Nigeria, they’re the two big powerhouses,” says Ambridge
He adds: “I think eastern Africa will be the fastest growing e-commerce destination in the next 10 years.”
One more growth vertical for Africa is animal transport. Kenya Cargo is seeing increased demand, especially for poultry shipments.
“There is massive potential around live animals,” says Musola. “Within the poultry segment, there are a lot of breeders who are setting up hatcheries within the continent.
“When you are transporting day-old chicks, time is of the essence so airfreight is essential. We are working with a number of strategic partners, including out of Kenya, Lusaka, Zambia and the UK.
Ageing fleet
Demand growth needs to be matched by capacity, but many freighters in Africa are approaching retirement age and instability of capacity is an issue.
This is an issue Astral is keenly aware of and as a result has carried out a fleet restructure – removing its narrowbody Boeing 757Fs, Boeing 727-200Fs and McDonnell Douglas DC9s.
The airline currently has a Boeing 767-200F, a Boeing 767-300F and a Boeing 737-400F.
It now plans to add a Boeing 737-800F and two Boeing 777 passenger to freighter (P2F) aircraft, but is waiting for the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to issue the Supplemental Type Certificate (STC) for the conversion.
Astral has also postponed its order for two Embraer E190Fs indefinitely because the investment is currently too financially risky, says Gadhia.
“We have to be very careful with our fleet and our choice of engines, because we are a privately owned airline without any government subsidy, so any change which is not well planned can make or break us.”
P2Fs are also preferable over new generation newbuilds for Astral because it has less financial leeway compared to a large airline.
Accounting for potential delays, he comments: "A converted freighter has a lower risk compared to a production freighter. We cannot afford delays.”
KQ Cargo is also exercising a cautious approach, but widebodies may be on the agenda.
The airline currently has two converted narrowbody 737-300Fs, and as of last year, two converted standard-body 737-800Fs.
The addition of the two 737-400Fs in the first quarter of last year “provided us with close to 500 tons of additional capacity a week”, says Musola.
“It’s in the public domain that there’s a very direct intention to bring in two more freighters,” he adds.
The company announced at Air Cargo Africa that the intended model was the 737-800F.
“The airline is also considering widebodies,” Musola confirms, adding there are already discussions in place for this potential investment.
Developing a more secure pipeline of capacity is something Musola is passionate about because foreign operators currently have a big stake in the market.
This is a double-edged sword because while this activity aids trade it can also be withdrawn and rerouted elsewhere when airlines see fit.
This happened during the pandemic and at the beginning of the Red Sea- Suez Canal crisis, notes Musola.
“During the pandemic, a lot of the foreign freighters exited the market, so the farmers had to destroy a lot of flowers.
“In 2024, the Red Sea crisis saw freighters move away from Africa to Asia.”
He stresses: “So we see this as a big challenge. Africa has to take more responsibility and ownership of the air cargo industry and not be over-reliant on foreign operators. We need to have more regional carriers.
“Kenya Airways would like to see at least between 20-30% of the African airfreight industry domiciled, then you minimise the risk of shockwaves."
With this in mind, KAC is supportive, rather than threatened, by more Africa-based capacity on the market and believes it will increase Africa’s overall air network, infrastructure and supply chains.
“There’s a huge untapped market,” Musola reflects. He adds: “To grow intra-Africa trade, we will need to penetrate into secondary airports and local carriers are able to distribute better into the secondary market.”
Network expansion
At the smaller end of the cargo market, Luanda-based TAAG has just one leased Boeing 737-800F, which it added to its fleet at the end of 2023, but plans to add another of the narrowbody model this year with the goal of moving into Central Africa.
The carrier started regular cargo operations from Dr. Antonio Agostinho Neto International Airport in Luanda in early 2024 with flights to Johannesburg Lagos and Brazzaville. From April it plans to add Nairobi, Libreville and Kinshasa into its freighter network, and possibly Lusaka and Harare too.
“So we’ll end up doing nine flights a week from April,” Ambridge says.
“If we get a second freighter then we will certainly look at other places like Dakar, Senegal, Monrovia, Bamako, Conakry, Bangi, Douala and Accra.
The goal of TAAG’s cargo business is to “pick points in Africa that are not well served to be able to be successful in those markets”, says Ambridge.
TAAG, is therefore looking to smaller airports as opposed to city hubs like Johannesburg, Cape Town, and Durban.
Network Airline Management (NAM) also renewed a block space agreement with TAAG in February to provide a weekly 747F scheduled service from Liege, Belgium, to Luanda, to access the oil & gas business in Angola, amongst other commodities.
Major verticals carried in the bellies of the mainly Lisbon, Portugal and Sao Paulo, Brazil-bound TAAG passenger aircraft include perishables, machinery and livestock, while car parts are also exported out of Europe bound for Johannesburg. The 737-800F connects with these services in Luanda.
“That’s why we want to increase the freighter frequencies, to keep up with the volume that we want to sell from Europe,” explains Ambridge.
In Nairobi, Astral has postponed plans to acquire an Air Operator Certificate (AOC) for Europe to focus more on its operations in Africa and Asia.
It has maintained a Nairobi-Hong Kong route and its Guangzhou to Nairobi route, launched in August last year.
Like TAAG, Astral wants to target further growth by looking at secondary airports that other airlines wouldn’t necessarily add to their networks.
In addition to Guangzhou, the airline is “seriously looking at operating into three other airports” in China.
KQ Cargo has recently exited a financially challenging period, and cargo has helped with a 25% growth in Kenya Airways’ cargo tonnage last year and a 20% increase in cargo revenue.
The 737-800Fs enabled KQ Cargo to expand into the Middle East, with a Sharjah, UAE hub to support mainly meat and horticultural exports.
“We are currently operating between 10 and 12 flights every week on the Nairobi-Sharjah route. We flew about 9000 tonnes of meat to Sharjah last year.”
In addition to Sharjah, KQ Cargo is exploring alternative markets like Jeddah in Saudia Arabia to serve the meat and flower industries, plus Riyadh further inland to also meet demand for flowers.
Partnerships will also help expand business where the networks do not exist.
Astral, which has 58 interline partnerships, recently signed an MOU with Emirates SkyCargo and an interline cooperation with Teleport, which flies from Kuala Lumpur to Nairobi, plus an enhanced cooperation agreement with Turkish Cargo.
Meanwhile, KQ Cargo is in discussions with other operators to move into the Indian and Pakistan markets off the back of demand for meat.
For example, it is considering flying into Sharjah and then extending the flight to Karachi. Bahrain and Oman are being considered too.
As with capacity diversification, partnerships work as a de-risking strategy too. “We are avoiding over-concentration in one market. In the event that you have a shock wave in that market, it could disrupt your entire operations,” emphasises Musola.
